The Met Office has predicted the strongest El Niño in living memory, which could result in extreme weather conditions impacting the UK. The weather phenomenon, called El Niño, is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs every few years and lasts several months, disrupting weather patterns worldwide and pushing up global temperatures.
After the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the beginning of El Niño in June, which could last until spring 2027, the Met Office has said 2026 is going to be renowned for the largest such event since the 19th century.
Unprecedented event
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office. He added: “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2oC being a really big event.
"This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
Forecasters say this unprecedented El Niño means 2027 could be the hottest on record. El Niño typically impacts the Indian summer monsoon, leading to below average rainfall. It also affects rainfall across Central America, west Pacific nations and tropical South America - and impacts tropical cyclones and Atlantic hurricanes, according to the Met Office.
Stormier conditions across the UK
The Met Office says the El Niño is set to peak in winter - and will likely increase the chances of wetter and stormier weather throughout autumn and early winter. Commenting on the Met Office blog post, Prof Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards, UCL, said: “The astonishing and unprecedented amount of heat building across the eastern Pacific Ocean is all but certain to make this the most powerful El Nino in living memory – possibly even the biggest in several centuries.
"The addition of much of this heat to the atmosphere will make it extremely likely that next year will be the hottest on record globally, perhaps even reaching – even exceeding – 1.7C above pre-industrial times. The knock-on impacts on global weather patterns are also expected to be huge – bringing drought and wildfire conditions to the Amazon and parts of Australia, torrential rainfall and floods to California, and a reduced South Asian monsoon.
"Powerful El Ninos typically bring mild, stormy Autumns and early Winters to the UK, followed by bitter cold, although this isn't set in stone," he added.
Higher UK food prices
The weather phenomenon could not only impact our weather directly, but could also have knock-on effects across the UK. According to Prof John Marsham, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, the "unprecedented impacts" expected across the tropics - floods, drought and heat - could seriously impact global food production, therefore pushing up global food prices.
Prof Marsham said: “Although forecasts must always account for uncertainty, it is clear from both the ocean temperature patterns we are already seeing, and every major forecast system, that we have to be prepared for unprecedented impacts in the tropics from this El Nino: floods, droughts and heat.
"The science is clear that this will affect UK weather, but it is also vital that people understand that the UK is also affected indirectly by El Nino. For example, an El Nino of this magnitude will affect global food production and push up UK food prices, which are already being increased by this summer's heatwaves and droughts, which themselves were fueled by the climate crisis.
"These forecasts for 2026 and 2027 also reveal the world we must prepare for in the coming years, as such extremes driven by the climate crisis will only get worse until we have phased out fossil fuels."
