UK Temperatures to Stay Above Normal for Four Weeks
The Met Office has indicated that temperatures across the UK are likely to remain above normal for the next four weeks, though it remains uncertain whether another official heatwave will occur this summer. This follows a period of record-breaking heat in May and June, which resulted in over 2,700 heat-related deaths in England and Wales.
Record-Breaking Heat in May and June
According to research by Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, approximately 550 people died during the May heatwave (May 21-29), and an additional 2,200 deaths occurred during the June heatwave (June 18-28). The highest temperature recorded in June was 37.7°C in Lingwood, Norfolk, on June 26.
The Met Office stated: "The national record for May was broken when 35.1°C was recorded in West London, and three consecutive days of record-breaking June temperatures culminated with heat in excess of 37°C in East Anglia. Such high temperatures would be extreme even at the height of mid-summer, with July and August typically bringing the UK’s peak summer temperatures."
Health Warnings and Infrastructure Impact
The extreme temperatures prompted health warnings for all age groups, including those not typically vulnerable, leading to significant travel delays and school closures. Dr. Malcolm Mistry, assistant professor in climate and geo-spatial modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, emphasized: "It is vital that action on adapting Britain’s homes, workplaces, and critical infrastructure to extreme heat outpaces these health risks, especially if we are to protect those most vulnerable to its impacts, such as older people, babies, and children."
Current and Future Heatwave Prospects
Temperatures recently peaked at 35.5°C in Wisley, Surrey. Stephen Dixon, Met Office spokesman, explained: "It’s simply not possible to know if this is the last official heatwave of the summer. We’re looking at the heatwave continuing through much of this week for many, though there is a forecast slight drop over the weekend, as we start to welcome more of a northerly influence. This will only drop temperatures more towards the mid-to-high 20s Celsius rather than the current low 30s."
A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the threshold, which varies by county from 25°C in Scotland to 28°C in London.
Forecast for Mid-July to Early August
For the period July 17-26, the Met Office predicts a change in weather patterns, with current dry and sunny conditions possibly breaking down into "a more unsettled spell" featuring heavy and thundery showers, particularly in the south. Into the following week, a short settled spell is expected before more changeable conditions return, with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly heavy and thundery. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal.
For July 27 to August 10, the forecast indicates changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps heavy and thundery, but also some drier and brighter interludes, especially in the south and southeast. Temperatures are expected to be above normal, with some hot spells possible.
