The Met Office has played down the chances of a sixth heatwave being on the way for Wales despite warm and humid spells which have been forecast. The meteorological agency told WalesOnline that temperatures are expected to be generally near average for the time of year over the next four weeks.
Forecast for late August to early September
Its long-range forecast for Monday, August 24, to Wednesday, September 2, states it will be largely dry and settled early next week as a ridge of high pressure continues to extend across the country. It adds: "Likely turning more unsettled during the week and through to the turn of the month as low pressure becomes more dominant. This bringing showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps heavy, to most if not all areas at times though still some sunny interludes. Possibly windy at times too."
The forecast continues: "Temperatures likely near to average though varying with some short-lived warm and humid spells possible, especially in the south."
Outlook for September
Looking further ahead, for the period of Thursday, September 3, to Thursday, September 17, the Met Office predicts that "a rather unsettled start to autumn is most likely with all areas probably seeing a mixture of showers or longer spells rain interspersed with drier interludes." It adds: "Temperatures likely varying around average, some warm or hot spells are possible but unlikely prolonged in early September. By mid-September, there may be an increase in the extent of drier, more settled weather, especially in the south and east, though signals become very weak."
A spokeswoman for the Met Office told WalesOnline: "Our long range forecast does not currently point towards a further widespread prolonged heatwave developing. While some short-lived warm and even hot spells are possible, particularly in the south, temperatures are expected to be generally near average for the time of year, with more unsettled conditions becoming increasingly likely through late August and into early September. We would encourage people to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as the details will become clearer nearer the time. Regular updates are available on the Met Office website."
BBC Weather forecast
The BBC Weather long range forecast for Monday, August 24, to Sunday, August 30, states it will be unsettled but "warming a little". The full forecast says: "High pressure may try to reassert itself early next week, and a couple of largely dry days are possible but with potentially rather cool nights in places. However, unsettled weather is likely to return midweek rather than any lasting dry period setting in. Low pressure circulations and frontal systems should impact the UK, bringing further bouts of rain with scattered showers and brighter spells in between. Rain or showers may be heavy at times, with a chance of thunderstorms, and winds will occasionally become strong and gusty. Any high pressure ridges in between are likely to be transitory, so drier interludes may be short lived. Rainfall amounts for the week are most likely to be near to above average. Despite that, temperatures should be near to a little above normal when averaged across the week."
The BBC forecasting agency looks further ahead for the period from Monday, August 31, to Sunday, September 13, when it says it will be "turning drier and warmer, at least in the south". The full forecast says: "Signs are that low pressure systems may continue to dominate conditions into the first week of September, so further periods of wet and windy or showery weather look most likely with short-lived drier and sunnier spells in between. Occasional scattered thunderstorms are possible. However, temperatures are most likely to be near or slightly above normal. The second week of September may see a high pressure building again across continental Europe, although timing any such transition is difficult at this stage. However, at some point this may push warmer air towards the UK, with temperatures ending up higher than the September average, highest across southern England. Conditions could become drier as well, but more likely across the southern UK than the north, where it may still be wetter than normal, especially across Scotland."
