The Met Office has warned that the autumn period is likely to be wetter than average, with an increased risk of flooding, as El Nino reaches near-record levels. Forecasters say supercharged conditions in the Pacific, which affect weather across the world, will put the UK at greater risk of a wet and stormy autumn overall.
What is El Nino and how does it affect the UK?
El Nino occurs when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average and can affect weather patterns in Europe. It can bring hotter temperatures to some parts of the world, while some places are likely to see droughts and others are expected to be hit with more rain and storms.
Forecasts have indicated that it is set to be one of the strongest El Nino events on record, and the current El Nino is already at near-record levels, the Met Office added. Historically, El Nino events have tended to be associated with warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK and northern Europe during late autumn and early winter, which is broadly consistent with the latest seasonal outlook.
Increased likelihood of wet and windy conditions
Because of this, the chances of a warm and wet meteorological autumn for the UK are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than would normally be expected, and there is an increased likelihood of windy conditions later in the season, the Met Office said. However, El Nino is one of several climate drivers that can influence the UK's weather and so does not determine exactly what conditions the UK is likely to experience.
The forecaster added that an increased likelihood of wetter and windier than normal conditions does come with an increased risk of impacts such as flooding.
Met Office chief meteorologist comment
Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Nino events.
“However, El Nino is only one of several factors affecting the UK’s weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.
“We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.”
Drought continues despite recent rain
It comes as officials have said almost three quarters of England remain in drought despite recent rain, as the country continues to battle its third drought in five years. While rain has turned the grass green again, and it would be “understandable” to think the drought was over, the Environment Agency said there was still a very long way to go, with concerns over a number of reservoirs at very low levels.
All regions continue to experience some degree of water stress after five heatwaves in what has been provisionally declared the hottest summer on record, and with less than two thirds (64%) of the expected seasonal rainfall.
Water minister Emma Hardy, who chaired Thursday’s (10 September) National Drought Group, said: “We’re experiencing our third drought in five years and the recent rainfall, while welcome, is not yet enough to replenish all the water we’ve used this summer.”
“Long-term resilience is a priority for this Government,” she added. “We are providing practical support for our hardworking farmers, who are at the sharp end of both drought and floods. We are funding more on-farm reservoirs, and we are also strengthening the country’s water infrastructure with nine new major reservoirs.”
Ms Hardy continued: “As we move through the autumn, we expect water companies to take every available step to minimise leakage, follow their drought plans, and reduce consumption to help avoid any further restrictions.”
