The Met Office has announced that longer periods of rain could finally arrive in the UK starting July 29, offering relief from the ongoing heatwave and drought. Rain has been extremely scarce across most of the country for the past two weeks, with large areas receiving little to no precipitation. This has led to hosepipe bans in several regions, including Anglian Water in the East of England, South East Water in Kent, and Southern Water covering Hampshire and the Isle of Wight.
Forecast Details for Late July to Mid-August
According to the Met Office's long-range forecast for July 29 to August 12, the UK may experience a more changeable period with potential for showers, thunderstorms, or even longer spells of rain. The forecast states: "Perhaps a somewhat more changeable period, with the potential for showers or thunderstorms or even some longer spells of rain at times. Drier and brighter interludes are also likely, perhaps more likely across the south and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible."
Short-Term Outlook: Limited Rain Until Late July
Before July 29, the chance of sustained rainfall remains low. The forecast for July 20 to 29 indicates that any showers are more likely in the far north, with high pressure weakening towards the end of the period, allowing a greater chance of rain, showers, or thunderstorms. These may initially affect the north before possibly moving south. Overall, temperatures are expected to remain above average during this period.
Expert Warnings on Future Drought Severity
Lucy Barker, Senior Hydrological Analyst at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, commented on the worsening drought conditions: "Last year was memorable for the intense drought over the spring and summer, when we saw very low river flows across the country, as well as significant impacts on water supplies, agriculture and the environment. River flows over the spring and summer approached or were lower than other recent droughts like those in 2018 and 2022, as well as the major drought of 1976. Our long-term river flow records do not indicate a widespread or significant trend towards worsening droughts over the last 60 years. However, recent droughts, associated with very hot, dry summer conditions – as seen now again in 2026 – are consistent with projections towards more severe droughts in future due to climate change."
Mike Kendon, a Met Office climate information scientist, added: "Every year is adding to the body of evidence showing climate change in the UK. We are right now living in a time of historic and unprecedented change and in terms of temperature, on annual, seasonal, monthly and daily timescales, this evidence shows the climate of the 20th Century has now gone."
