The UK is likely to see more intense heatwaves this summer after record-breaking temperatures in May and June, according to Met Office analysis. Researchers from Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine have linked the extreme heat to human-induced climate change, which has made daytime maximum temperatures across England and Wales roughly 3-4C hotter than they would have been without global warming.
Recent Heatwave Conditions
Large parts of the UK experienced heatwave conditions over the past week, with Liverpool reaching a high of 34C. The national record for May was broken when 35.1C was recorded in West London, and three consecutive days of record-breaking June temperatures culminated with heat in excess of 37C in East Anglia. Without the extra warming caused by climate change, these high temperatures would have been less likely to occur.
Expert Analysis on Climate Impact
Dr. Mark McCarthy, manager of climate attribution at the Met Office, said: "2026 has been exceptional for the two early season heatwaves in May and June. These have smashed records that had stood from May 1944 and June 1976 respectively. For the time of year these events were extreme, even in our warmer climate." He added: "However, it is clear that human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves. This intensification is driving many impacts, including those affecting human health and mortality and other issues, such as agriculture, effects on transport infrastructure and biodiversity."
Short-Term Forecast
Temperatures have now cooled down to the early 20s, and the coming week is expected to be milder. However, the Met Office's long-range forecast for the north west indicates that high pressure is likely to remain close to the UK for much of this period, keeping conditions predominantly dry. The source region of the air being from the North Atlantic will make it somewhat less hot compared to many recent days. Any showers during the start of the period are more likely across the far north.
Outlook for Late July and August
Towards the latter part of July, the influence of high pressure may wane somewhat, allowing a greater chance of rain, showers, or thunderstorms compared to earlier in the month. Overall, temperatures are expected to remain above average during this period. Looking ahead to August, the Met Office said: "Perhaps a somewhat more changeable period, with the potential for showers or thunderstorms or even some longer spells of rain at times. Drier and brighter interludes are also likely, perhaps more likely across the south and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible."
While there isn't a heatwave forecast in the short-term outlook, according to Met Office statistics, it is more likely the UK will have intense heat throughout this summer due to climate change. The milder weather this weekend may be a brief respite before hotter conditions return.
