The chances of another heatwave in London this year appear to be dwindling as unsettled weather takes hold. The capital has sweltered in five prolonged hot spells since late May, with temperatures reaching a 2026 high of 38.1C in Kew Gardens on Thursday, August 13. Temperatures have dropped markedly since then, with a high of 22C expected today (Thursday, August 20). The weeks-long dry spell has also been broken, with rain falling on London on three consecutive days this week.
Met Office long-range forecast shifts
The Met Office's long-range forecast earlier held out hope — for those already missing the hot weather — of another heatwave before the season is out. “There is a chance that late-season hot spells or heatwaves develop, especially in the south,” the agency stated earlier in the week, in its forecast for August 30 to September 13. That “chance” appears to have since receded, if the Met Office's latest update is anything to go by.
Its long-range forecast, covering the period September 3-17, predicts a “rather unsettled” start to autumn, with all areas “probably seeing a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with drier interludes.” It continues: “Temperatures likely varying around average, some warm or hot spells are possible but unlikely prolonged in early September. By mid-September, there may be an increase in the extent of drier, more settled weather, especially in the south and east, though signals become very weak.”
Climate context and drought
The forecast comes after a thunderstorm warning for parts of northern England expired on Thursday morning. The UK is facing increasingly severe weather extremes such as heatwaves, droughts and flooding — with a risk of surface water floods as heavy rain falls on baked dry ground — as a result of climate change, caused mostly by burning fossil fuels for power stations, vehicles, heating buildings and industry. Nearly three quarters of England including London, and all of Wales, are in drought as a result of the hot dry conditions.
