The risk of a historic El Niño event capable of supercharging extreme weather worldwide is rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service. Forecasters now estimate an 81% probability that a very strong El Niño—one that would rank among the largest since 1950—will develop before the end of 2026. There is a 97% chance that the conditions will persist through spring 2027.
Record-Breaking Trajectory
Climate scientist Daniel Swain noted in a broadcast discussion on Thursday that the observed conditions are already in record-breaking territory. “El Niño so far, for the calendar date, is as strong or stronger than we’ve ever seen before, and that is a trajectory that is expected to continue,” he said. He added that the odds and magnitudes of the event keep rising.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It alters jet streams and flips precipitation patterns, fueling more severe storms in some regions while causing drought in others.
Potential Impacts of a Super El Niño
A so-called “super El Niño”—driving sea surface temperatures at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average—could wreak havoc and set the stage for record global heat. Its effects would compound those already fueled by the climate crisis. The 2015 super El Niño brought severe drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and a vicious hurricane season in the central-north Pacific.
Typical El Niño cycles create drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, including the Amazon rainforest. Conversely, heavy precipitation may hit the southern United States, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.
Already Devastating Heat
These warnings come amid an already devastatingly hot spring and summer. Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), with several countries breaking all-time temperature records. Dr Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, stated: “June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing. The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure.”
More than 3,700 excess deaths were recorded across France, the Netherlands, and Belgium—a number likely underestimated. In the US, 20 states recorded temperatures above 100°F (38°C) during a punishing heat dome that marred Fourth of July celebrations, causing dozens of deaths and millions of emergency room visits.
Upcoming Heat Dome and Fire Risks
An enormous heat dome is forecast to expand over the US West and into the central plains, threatening more stifling conditions. Swain warned that heat records could be set in the interior West, with several states bracing for temperatures above 100°F. This could increase fire dangers in drought-stricken regions. On Thursday, firefighters were battling 38 large wildfires across the country, and more than 3.4 million acres (1.4 million hectares) have already burned in the US this year.
This article was amended on 10 July 2026 to correct a temperature conversion error.
