A new study by experts at Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimates that heatwaves in May and June resulted in 2,700 excess deaths across England and Wales. In London alone, the death toll was 109 in May and 344 in June, while the wider South East saw 110 excess deaths in May and 439 in June, bringing the combined total to 1,002.
Record-Breaking Temperatures
Temperatures reached a new UK record for May at 35.1°C in Kew Gardens, south west London, on May 26. The study noted that warming was strongest in the urban heat island of Greater London, exacerbating the impact. June also saw record temperatures, contributing to the high death toll.
Climate Change Attribution
Dr Clair Barnes, from Imperial College London, warned that heatwaves are the “most dangerous kind of extreme weather.” She stated, “People need to be aware that we are now seeing dangerous climate-change fuelled heat that is claiming lives, disrupting schools and hospitals and shutting down transport and infrastructure. It’s time we woke up to the fact that we now live in a country with dangerously hot summers.”
The study attributed six out of ten heat-related deaths in London in May to climate change, and four out of ten in June. Dr Barnes added, “To protect people during future extremes, we must urgently adapt to the reality of the climate we now have, and double down on global efforts to reach net zero emissions to stop this from getting worse.”
Vulnerable Populations
About six out of ten heat-related deaths across the country were people aged 85 or older. However, previous research highlighted that younger Londoners are also at risk, possibly due to commuting on the Tube in high temperatures, housing overcrowding, and the urban heat island effect.
Regional Impact
After accounting for population size, the hardest hit regions per million people during the May heatwave were the South West, London, and the South East. In June, the West Midlands, South East, and South West had the highest heat-related mortality rates. Researchers suggested the high toll in the West Midlands may partly be due to less adaptation to hot weather compared to London and the South.
Health Risks and Emergency Services
High temperatures are associated with heat exhaustion, heat stroke, stress on the heart and kidneys, and worsening chronic conditions such as heart disease, lung conditions, and diabetes. They also worsen mental health, violence, and increase the risk of drowning. London Ambulance Service had its busiest week in history during the June heatwave, with a record number of life-threatening emergencies.
Alison Blakely, deputy chief paramedic, urged Londoners to “take the heat seriously, stay hydrated and avoid strenuous activity such as running during the hottest parts of the day, as it puts extra strain on your heart and lungs.”
Expert Warnings and Political Reactions
The Met Office’s Dr Mark McCarthy described the two record-breaking heatwaves as “exceptional,” adding that global warming is making heatwaves more frequent and intense. Researchers warned that maximum daytime temperatures are around 3°C to 4°C hotter than they would be without climate change.
The Climate Change Committee, the Government’s independent advisers, warned that the UK is unprepared for extreme heat, with 92% of homes potentially overheating by mid-century. They called for maximum temperature rules in workplaces and air conditioning in hospitals, care homes, and schools.
Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband stated, “The Government will not leave our children and grandchildren to face the costs of climate breakdown and nature loss.” Green Party leader Zack Polanski added, “These deaths are on the hands of politicians who have failed to act over the years.”
