A new study has directly linked carbon emissions from the world's biggest fossil fuel companies to dozens of deadly heatwaves, marking a significant development in legal efforts to hold polluters accountable. The research found that emissions from any one of the 14 largest companies were sufficient to cause over 50 heatwaves that would otherwise have been virtually impossible.
For instance, ExxonMobil's emissions made 51 heatwaves at least 10,000 times more likely, as did those from Saudi Aramco. The study, published in Nature, analysed 213 major heatwaves from 2000 to 2023 across every continent, finding that total emissions from 180 'carbon major' companies were responsible for about half the increase in intensity, with deforestation accounting for most of the rest.
Global heating is making heatwaves more frequent and intense, contributing to at least 500,000 heat-related deaths annually. The searing 2021 Pacific north-west heatwave, for example, was made almost 3°C hotter. The research found that from 2010 to 2019, the studied heatwaves became 200 times more likely on average due to climate change.
Experts say the findings could be crucial for legal liability. 'Being able to trace back the contribution of these single emitters and quantify their contribution could be very useful for establishing potential liability,' said Prof Sonia Seneviratne of ETH Zurich, a senior author. Dr Davide Faranda of the French National Centre for Scientific Research added: 'This study adds a crucial new step: it connects the dots between specific climate disasters and the companies whose emissions made them possible.'
The world's highest court, the International Court of Justice, ruled in July that failing to prevent climate harm could result in compensation payments, while a German high court set a precedent in May that fossil fuel firms could be held liable. Cassidy DiPaola of the Make Polluters Pay campaign said: 'Here's the evidence the courts have been waiting for. The bill is coming due, and it's time these polluters pay for the damage they've done.'
