Raja, a traditional rain festival in Odisha, passed without rain this June, leaving fields untouched and skies clear. The monsoon arrived at the end of the month, prompting global experts to declare the onset of a 'super' El Niño expected to intensify from July to September.
Farmers Face Crop Failure and Debt
In Laxmipur village, Ganjam district, farmers recall the 2023-24 El Niño when transplanting attempts failed twice each year, leading to total crop loss. Sanjith Mandal, 24, said his family took a loan of 30,000 rupees (£235) at high interest to manage expenses. Mangala Sabar, 45, noted that almost everyone in the village has taken on debt.
June ended with a 40% rainfall shortfall. Despite dry conditions and lack of irrigation, farmers sowed seeds in late June, hoping for timely rain. The state has faced at least 19 droughts in the past 50 years.
Water Scarcity and Migration
Nitin Bassi, a water management specialist at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said nearly 50% of Odisha's cultivated area is rain-fed. A 2024 analysis found the monsoon arrived up to a week late over the past decade, while winter rainfall increased.
In Mali Jagannathpur village, farmers wait for canal water from a reservoir. Widow K Sukumari, 28, said her borewell dried up and rainfall has been deficient for years. She works in a brick kiln and others' fields to support her two children.
Chandni Singh, a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, noted that drought is not unknown in Odisha. Farmers innovate and adapt, but distress migration occurs as households diversify risk.
Local Initiatives and Forecasts
Gram Vikas, a development organisation, has installed 25 automatic weather stations, including one on Mangala Sabar's roof in Laxmipur. Weekly weather conditions and seven-day rain forecasts are written on a blackboard in Odia. Sabar receives updates via WhatsApp and updates the board.
The India Meteorological Department now provides tailored forecasts to over 38 million farmers via SMS and phone calls. Advisories recommend delayed sowing, low-duration crops, and drought-resilient varieties. However, uptake remains limited. Singh emphasised that farmers rely on local knowledge and peer influence more than data alone.
Liby Johnson of Gram Vikas stressed the need for evolutionary cropping changes and community confidence in accurate information.
Outlook and Resilience
S&P Global warned that a weak monsoon could drive up inflation and strain fiscal balances. By July, the overall monsoon deficit narrowed to 21%, but uncertainty deepens as El Niño strengthens. Despite challenges, Mangala Sabar said, 'We will farm, and let's see what happens.'
