The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the current El Nino is "exceptional" and will intensify, with impacts expected to continue well into 2027. The warning comes as forecasters describe the phenomenon as being "supersized before our eyes."
WMO warns of massive blow to communities and economies
In an update issued this morning, WMO experts said El Nino is expected to peak towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo cautioned: "It has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. This exceptional El Nino demands exceptional preparation and response."
Saulo added: "We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies."
Sea temperatures to rise more than 3C above average
This time, sea temperatures are forecast to rise more than 3C above average, making this year's event "the largest since the 19th century." The Met Office has predicted the "most intense" event in living memory could bring storms, drought and record heat, potentially powerful enough to switch rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, fueling extreme weather.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern, typically declared when sea temperatures in a key part of the tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5C above the long-term average. The phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and can last up to nine months, often developing between March and June, strengthening through autumn, and reaching peak intensity around November.
Signs of unusual weather patterns already visible
There are already signs of unusual weather patterns across the world, with monsoon rainfall in India running below average and El Nino conditions capable of suppressing hurricane activity across the tropical Atlantic. Scientists do not yet have enough information to say whether the impending El Nino played any part in the flash floods which have so far killed hundreds in Nepal and Tibet.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt - the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up." He added: "Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race."
What is El Nino?
El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, describes the warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs every few years, disrupting weather patterns worldwide and pushing up global temperatures. The name comes from South American fishermen centuries ago, who noticed warmer-than-normal coastal conditions periodically around Christmas time and nicknamed it "El Nino" in reference to the birth of Jesus.
Many forecasts suggest that this El Nino will end up being the strongest on record. The relationship between climate change and El Nino events remains an area of scientific research, as El Nino adds extra heat to an already-warming planet, compounding the impacts of both.
