Developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea could cause climate damage costing the UK economy up to £38bn, according to a new analysis.
Cost of climate damage
The figure, calculated by the thinktank Carbon Tracker, is based on the social cost of carbon – an estimate of the economic damage caused by each tonne of CO2 emitted. The analysis assumes the two fields would produce around 500 million barrels of oil equivalent over their lifetimes.
Carbon Tracker said the £38bn figure was the "central estimate" of the damage, with costs ranging from £16bn to £69bn depending on the discount rate used. The fields, which are yet to receive final investment decisions, would lock in emissions for decades.
Government plans under scrutiny
The analysis comes as the UK government faces growing pressure over its energy security strategy, which includes plans to license new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. Ministers have argued that domestic production reduces reliance on imports and has a lower carbon footprint.
However, campaigners and environmental groups have called the plans inconsistent with the UK's climate commitments. The Climate Change Committee has previously advised against new oil and gas exploration, saying it would not reduce emissions overall.
Potential impact on climate targets
Carbon Tracker's report warns that developing Rosebank and Jackdaw could undermine the UK's legally binding net-zero target. The emissions from burning the oil and gas would be counted against the global carbon budget, even if the UK does not consume all of it domestically.
The analysis also notes that the economic case for the projects is weak, with oil prices needing to stay above certain levels for the fields to be profitable. It concludes that the potential climate damage far outweighs the expected tax revenues for the Treasury.
