British Gas is urging households across the UK to stockpile at least three days of essential food items this winter, amid fears that the El Niño weather phenomenon could bring freezing conditions and snow.
Climate experts have said a polar vortex could bring colder weather and even snow to the UK this winter, as El Niño leads to a colder winter. El Niño has been a key driver of hot weather this year, with the warming of the sea's surface having a dramatic knock-on effect on global weather systems, creating much warmer than average weather. It has been thought to be one of the reasons behind the UK's five record-breaking heatwaves this summer.
Polar Vortex disruption
While nothing is certain yet, the El Niño weather front drives changes in high and low pressure patterns. The strength of a polar vortex - the area of cold air which normally spins over the North and South poles - is vulnerable to disruption from jet streams of air. When disrupted, it can send freezing air, creating a cold snap and snow, into the US and Europe.
Energy supplier British Gas has a list of advice for homes, urging people to do 10 things to prepare. The list includes improving insulation, including weatherproofing gaps around windows and doors, protecting pipes, and putting insulating tubing on any exposed pipes for your boiler or heating or water supply.
Preparation advice
The firm also urged people to store extra wood for a log burner indoors, in case you can't get to it, and not to put electric heaters near furniture. Households were also urged to check smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors, especially if using indoor heating like a log burner, and to check where their stopcock is, in case they need to turn off the water supply due to a burst pipe.
British Gas then told households to prepare for not having heating. It said: “While it’s unlikely that a heavy snowfall will leave you without any heating, it's always worth keeping sleeping bags, blankets and warm coats handy.”
The supplier also urged people to make an emergency kit, adding: “It’s a good habit to have at least three days’ worth of food and essentials stored in an easy-to-reach part of your home. That’s things like medicines, drinking water, non-perishable food and snacks, and extra blankets. You should also keep a torch, batteries and a phone charger close by too.”
Met Office outlook
The Met Office explains how a Polar Vortex could happen, though it is not yet certain: "The current El Niño is unprecedented in terms of its strength at present and various seasonal modelling centres predict further strengthening over the next couple of months, with a predicted peak in November of December. For the UK, El Niño increases the chances of a wetter and stormier late autumn and early winter period, which would also likely be milder than normal."
"Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather. However, significant as El Niño is, it is important to emphasise that it alone does not determine precise weather patterns and other outcomes remain possible."
Even if it doesn't snow, the UK's Prepare website urges households to be well stocked in case of national emergencies anyway, such as extreme weather but also strikes on infrastructure, the breakout of conflict and cyberattacks which could cause disruption and outages.
It says: "Consider what supplies you and your household might need during an emergency lasting a few days, such as a power cut or water outage, or situations where you are advised to stay at home or to leave your home (evacuate) for safety reasons."
It includes: "Non-perishable food that doesn’t need cooking, such as ready-to-eat tinned meat, fruit or vegetables (and a tin opener). As with water, how much you need will vary based on your own circumstances. Don’t forget food for pets."
