The Albanese government is set to unveil Australia's 2035 emissions reduction target on Thursday, alongside a suite of reports including the Climate Change Authority's advice, a net-zero by 2050 plan, and sectoral pollution reduction analysis. The target, initially due in February, was delayed until after the May election pending advice from the authority chaired by former NSW Liberal treasurer Matt Kean.
The government is expected to announce new policies to cut greenhouse gases, building on the 2030 target of a 43% reduction below 2005 levels. November projections suggest Australia is on track for a 42.6% cut, just shy of that goal. Climate Minister Chris Bowen has indicated the 2035 target may be a range rather than a single number, to be submitted to the UN as the country's nationally determined contribution under the Paris agreement.
The Climate Change Authority's consultation paper in April 2024 proposed a cut of at least 65% and up to 75% as ambitious and achievable with additional action. The authority, having consulted experts and modelled scenarios, reached its final position last week, with Bowen receiving the advice on Friday. It considered scientific advice for limiting global heating to 1.5°C, international diplomacy, economics, technology, and social acceptability.
Scientific analyses suggest Australia should aim for cuts between the high 70s and 100% by 2035. Pacific island neighbours urge maximum ambition and a halt to new fossil fuel approvals. Think tanks like Climate Analytics and the Australian Conservation Foundation have detailed pathways for a 75% cut, which campaigners deem credible. However, experts like Frank Jotzo of ANU argue even 65% would be ambitious given the pace of progress, emphasising policy implementation over the target number.
Business groups are divided: about 500 firms including Fortescue, Atlassian, Ikea, and Unilever advocate for 75%, while others stress costs and favour a target in the 50s. The Business Council of Australia issued a veiled warning against targets in the 60s or 70s, publishing modelling that highlights economic impacts. The political battle over Australia's climate ambition is set to intensify with the target's release.
