Campaigners have warned that the Amazon rainforest faces irreversible destruction after a right-wing candidate topped a crunch poll in Brazil. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are set to face off in an October 25 runoff election after neither candidate secured a majority in Sunday's vote.
Flavio - son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro - looks poised to sweep to power after he defied opinion polls to take roughly 47% of the vote to Lula's 45%. Environmental campaigners in the country warn that a Bolsonaro victory would revive his father's dismantling of climate protections, and lead to further felling of the Amazon rainforest.
Amazon at the Centre of the Race
Whoever wins will lead a country that contains about 60% of the world's largest rainforest - an ecosystem that is vital to the global climate. But conservation of the Amazon has been largely absent from the presidential campaign.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029. Lula proposes zero net deforestation by 2030, meaning any forest loss, legal or illegal, would have to be offset through restoration. In his father's three-year term, approximately 17,400 square miles of the rainforest - known as the 'lungs of the Earth' because of its ability to absorb carbon dioxide - was destroyed.
Campaigners Voice Fears
Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Observatório do Clima network of charities, said on election day that the prospect of Flávio following in his father's footsteps had sparked fears among scientists and climate activists. She told US news website NPR: "We are really concerned to have, again, this kind of 'hell to the climate' agenda that we face along the Bolsonaro's agenda."
And she said to Brazilian media: "Today there are politicians who make the destruction of the environment an electoral platform." Sen. Bolsonaro has not detailed his Amazon-related policies, saying broadly that his administration would intensify efforts against environmental crime and promote conservation.
"Flávio Bolsonaro is a defender of the environment and of those who preserve standing forests and clean rivers," his campaign said in a statement. It said his government would create economic incentives for conservation and restoration. In analysis published just before the election, the group said a Flavio government could produce deforestation rates even higher than those recorded during Jair Bolsonaro's presidency.
Indigenous Communities and Political Fallout
Along with the environmental toll, previous rounds of deforestation have also impacted indigenous groups, many of whom have lived along the Amazon river for centuries. Tainara da Costa Cruz, a 22-year-old Kambeba indigenous woman living on the Rio Negro, told AFP before the first round of voting: "We Indigenous peoples suffer a lot from environmental impacts. So it is important to choose a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature."
Last night's poll also saw Bolsonaro's PL party win the most seats in decades - leading political analyst Eliane Brum to warn in one newspaper editorial of the "urgent challenge" of waking up the population to the "hard truths" of the climate crisis before the second round. Flavio Bolsonaro emerged as his father's political heir after Jair was sentenced to a 27-year prison sentence for his involvement in a 2022 coup plot. Jair Bolsonaro remains under house arrest, after being moved from a federal cell due to his poor health.
Speaking to supporters outside his home in Brasilia last night as the first round results came in, Flavio said: "Brazil wants change, that's the reading of what happened today". Lula said the result was "unexpected" as he had thought he could win in the first round, but vowed to top the eventual vote. He added: "Tomorrow we start a new campaign. I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan."
