Polling experts have questioned how long Andy Burnham's popularity will last after stepping into his new role as Prime Minister. His favourability has soared compared to Sir Keir Starmer's during his first days in office, shooting up to 19% following a dip during the Makerfield by-election. In contrast, Sir Keir Starmer’s favourability dipped to -41%.
Labour's Second Chance
Polling expert Sir John Curtice told The Independent that Labour had "definitely been given a second chance" after the spike in popularity, which happened quicker than most expected. He attributed it in part to Andy Burnham's policies and communication, and in part because Sir Keir was gone. Sir John said: “The question for Andy Burnham is how long this will last and only time will tell on that.”
Shifting Voter Support
While Sir Keir was in power, Labour was losing a steady stream of its core voters to Reform UK. A YouGov poll for Sky last August showed just 20% would vote Labour, while Reform UK had 28% of the vote, and the Conservatives were at 17%. Now, polling shows Reform UK and Labour are tied at 22% each, with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives at 21%.
Burnham's Policy Pledges
Since taking office, Andy Burnham has pledged to end rough sleeping in England, cut VAT from domestic electricity bills, and slash business rates by 20% for pubs. He also proposed giving some Universal Credit households £4,500 so their children are not dissuaded from entering work.
Reform UK's Challenges
His policies follow weeks of challenges for Reform UK, after its leader Nigel Farage was accused of undeclared gifts and donations. The standards commissioner is investigating whether Farage should have declared a £5million gift from Thailand-based businessman Christopher Harborne given to him before the last election. Farage said it was "purely private" and "wasn't political in any sense at all". He stated: "And believe you me, we've looked at this from every legal angle, there is no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non-political, personal gift. And it will ensure I can be safe for the rest of my life."
The inquiry was later widened to see if he should have declared support from his friend and fraudster George Cottrell, who let him stay at his home in London and paid for some social media filming in 2024. Farage said it was "totally undeclarable in every single way".
