The foreign population of the Balearic Islands is expected to surge by 200,000 over the next 15 years, according to new projections from Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE). This increase would bring the total population from the current 1.26 million to 1.46 million by 2041, with the majority of growth coming from non-Spanish nationals.
Population Projections and Demographics
The INE forecasts that the foreign population in the Balearics—comprising Majorca, Menorca, and Ibiza—will climb from 369,480 to 575,000 by 2041. This would mean that foreigners represent 39% of the total population, the highest percentage in Spain. Catalonia and Valencia would follow at 37% each.
Overall, the Balearic Islands' population growth rate is expected to be surpassed only by Valencia, which is projected at 16.4%. This growth would give the islands a larger population than Aragon, a region nearly ten times its size.
Migration Patterns
The INE estimates that between 28,000 and 40,000 foreign citizens will arrive annually, offset by emigration of 21,000 to 29,000 people each year. Additionally, around 20,000 people from mainland Spain are expected to move to the islands, but roughly 25,000 island residents will relocate to other Spanish regions, leading to a decline in the Spanish-born population.
Overpopulation Concerns
Overpopulation remains a pressing issue in the Balearic Islands, with anti-tourism protests occurring in recent years. In October 2025, President Prohens stated that the islands "cannot assume unlimited population growth" and called for an urgent debate on demographic challenges.
According to Caixa Bank research, the Balearic Islands, with 1.3 million inhabitants, is the twelfth-largest region in Spain. It is also one of the youngest, with only 17.2% of the population over 65 (compared to the national average of 21.1%), and has the highest proportion of foreigners.
