Experts on the rise of far-right politics across Europe have warned Scotland “cannot rest” just because support for extremists in the country currently remains low. The warning comes after the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won a stunning electoral breakthrough last weekend, falling just short of an outright majority in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt.
AfD success sends 'shockwave' through Germany
Dr Jan Eichhorn, a senior lecturer in social policy at the University of Edinburgh, said the AfD had sent a “shockwave” through Germany and caused “great concern” around the world. He told the Record: “For the first time since World War II a party classified as extreme right may take executive power in a German state.”
He highlighted the party's manifesto, which he said included a punitive stance on migration, ending the inclusion of children with disabilities in mainstream schooling, reshaping police structures to meet ideological goals, and cutting all funding to 'unpatriotic' art. Eichhorn noted that the AfD's playbook matches that of far- and extreme-right populists elsewhere, with cooperation involving people around Victor Orban and Trump’s MAGA Republicans.
Scotland's far-right support 'nowhere near' German levels
Despite the concerns, Eichhorn pointed to important specifics regarding the AfD compared with the far-right elsewhere. “While extreme actors have also increased action and support across the UK and Scotland, the depth of support, especially in Scotland is nowhere near the levels we found in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD received nearly 44 per cent of the vote.”
He added: “What Scotland, and other places, must learn is that democratic parties and civil society cannot rest because currently support for such extreme views is not as deep. The AfD gradually built it in Germany, helped by established politics mirroring their rhetoric on migration – which only helped the AfD. Democratic actors must not accommodate narratives that scapegoat - but instead solve the real material problems most people primarily care about.”
Political marketing expert urges parties to address discontent
Jennifer Lees-Marshment, professor of political marketing at the University of Dundee, said polling from YouGov shows that immigration has risen steadily as a concern for voters in Scotland over the last four years. “But it also shows the economy is more of an issue, and the next important is health. This reinforces the sense that anti-immigration attitudes are widespread but also connected to people's economic wealth (or lack of) and access to health services.”
She noted that protests are alarming and can bring threats to law and order, but they also suggest a legitimate unmet demand in the political market not being responded to through peaceful democratic means. Lees-Marshment urged established parties such as Labour, Conservative and the SNP to understand the heart of such discontent and develop and deliver policies that address it.
'Basis for the far-right is everywhere'
Dr Heinz Brandenbur, senior lecturer in the Department of Government and Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde, said the AfD's success would “embolden” supporters of the far-right in Scotland and elsewhere. “They see this on social media and think they are winning. Scotland is a late entrant to it, but it's not that different to other parts of the UK. The basis for the far-right is everywhere.”
However, he added: “Scotland is still in a very different state to Saxony-Anhalt. Two-thirds of people still vote mainstream parties. There are many people unhappy with the SNP, but they haven't reached the point of abandoning mainstream parties altogether.”
