A new report warns that Australian music festivals risk extinction unless they adapt to the climate crisis, as extreme weather reshapes audience behaviour and the live music economy. The study, titled 'Rain, Heat, Repeat: How Music Fans are Experiencing Extreme Weather', was released on Wednesday by RMIT University in collaboration with Green Music Australia and La Trobe University.
Researchers surveyed 1,155 people aged 18 to 60 who attended live music events in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania. Nearly one-third of respondents said they now check weather forecasts before buying tickets, while 34% reported that extreme weather has made them more cautious about purchasing tickets. Among regular gig-goers, that figure rose to 44%.
Catherine Strong, a sociologist and associate professor at RMIT, said climate change is already drastically altering audience behaviour. 'The normal way the festival industry does business relies on a certain number of tickets to be sold early and often,' she explained. 'People are now getting cautious enough about the weather that they're starting to leave their ticket buying to the point where they can meaningfully look at a weather forecast.'
This shift has contributed to cancellations of major events. In 2024, both Splendour in the Grass and Groovin the Moo cancelled due to insufficient early ticket sales. The report found that 85% of festivalgoers had been affected by floods, storms, heatwaves or bushfire threats at an event in the past 12 months. One in three said they would avoid a festival if temperatures were forecast to hit 35°C, and nearly one in five now purchase ticket insurance for weather-related cancellations.
The trend is pushing consumers towards 'safer' options like large concerts in covered arenas, which favour international stars such as Taylor Swift and Lady Gaga over local acts. Strong warned that this threatens the sustainability of Australian musicians' careers, as festivals have long served as a platform for emerging artists. 'One of the things festivals have done is provide a space where up and coming local acts reach audiences that they wouldn't have done otherwise,' she said.
