Camilla Cavendish's new book, Generation Maybe, investigates the sharp decline in birthrates worldwide, a phenomenon she compares to the Black Death of the 14th century. The book moves beyond the standard narrative that educated women simply choose freedom over family, presenting a more nuanced picture based on extensive reporting.
The fertility gap explained
Cavendish focuses on the “fertility gap” – the difference between the number of children people say they want and the number they actually have. She examines the lived experiences of men and women who end up with fewer children than expected, asking what stopped them.
The barriers are numerous: finding the right partner in time, rising costs of raising a family (with housing a specific factor), and the difficulty of balancing a career with caregiving. There is also a “rational pessimism about prospects for the next generation” in an unstable world, the stigma of embracing motherhood, a shortage of stories glorifying fatherhood, the pressure of “intensive parenting,” and the lure of all-consuming “greedy jobs.” Cavendish also notes the sheer exhaustion of caring for a small child.
Workplace realities and policy responses
Cavendish, a working mother of three, observes that “the joyous, messy, life-giving task of raising a family has become something that feels more like a daunting, lonely, and expensive chore.” She adds, “We’ve shifted, slowly but surely, into treating parenthood like a self-indulgent lifestyle choice. The onus is on you to cope.” She notes that “little has changed in the workplace in the last 20 years, despite the rhetoric about flexibility,” but what has changed is how “grimly realistic young women now are about the trade-offs.”
The book also charts how authoritarian governments in China, Russia, Iran, and elsewhere have responded to falling birthrates with repressive pronatalist policies, including sanctioning child marriage, making divorce more difficult, and denying abortion access. It draws parallels with the Trump administration’s attacks on reproductive rights and federal childcare funding.
A call for genuine choice
Cavendish examines what has and hasn't worked in Singapore, Scandinavia, and France, outlining nearly a dozen ways to help people choose children, from building more housing to offering parents benefits and even giving children the vote. “Almost all policies which may help to lift birthrates are also ones which could enable human flourishing,” she notes.
The book offers an empathic approach to the ambivalence potential parents feel, illuminating the gulf between popular talking points and real conversations. For Cavendish, the goal isn't to persuade anyone to have kids; it's simply “to make children a genuine choice.”
