The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that the government's planned reforms to special educational needs and disabilities (Send) provision in England could spark a backlash similar to the recent U-turn on disability benefits, unless ministers convince parents the changes are not about cutting costs.
In a briefing titled 'England's Send Crisis', the IFS said any changes to the current system of education, health and care plans (EHCPs) would be highly controversial. The number of EHCPs has surged by 80% since 2018, with about one in 20 school-age children now holding a plan. The thinktank described reform as 'long overdue' but cautioned that if the focus is on reducing legal rights to save money, it could become 'welfare reforms mark 2'.
Luke Sibieta, co-author of the briefing, said the success of reforms hinges on how the government presents its upcoming white paper. 'If the focus is all about saving money and reducing burdens, then it's very hard to see how this policy will go through,' he said. 'But if it is about providing a better quality of service, or providing access to support earlier, then I can see how the policy can be successful.'
The IFS also criticised EHCPs, noting that 'you cannot magic quality into existence by writing it on a legal document'. It highlighted that many children receive support from poorly trained teaching assistants, missing time with qualified teachers. The thinktank called for a clear vision that supports all children while delivering better value for money.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson faces challenges convincing the Treasury to increase spending, particularly for special schools. The IFS noted that creating more state-funded special schools could reduce reliance on expensive private ones, where costs average £62,000 per pupil annually compared with £24,000 in the state sector. The number of pupils with EHCPs in private special schools has tripled since 2016, accounting for nearly £1bn of the £4bn annual rise in high-needs spending.
A Department for Education spokesperson said the government inherited a Send system 'left on its knees' and is listening to parents to improve outcomes for all children with Send.
