Revised official projections indicate the prison population in England and Wales will reach the landmark figure of 100,000 inmates a year later than previously anticipated.
Revised Projections and Key Drivers
Newly published Ministry of Justice (MoJ) estimates, released on Thursday 4 December 2025, forecast that the number of prisoners will rise to between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030. The central estimate sits at 100,600.
The department attributes the projected increase to several key factors: a sustained rise in police charges and prosecutions, a greater volume of cases reaching the courts, and an increase in offenders being recalled to custody.
Impact of Emergency Measures and Policy Changes
However, the latest figures also show the projected prison population will be approximately 2,400 lower by September 2028 compared to last year's forecast. This revision is largely credited to recent sentencing policy interventions.
A significant factor is the government's emergency early release scheme, initiated in September last year to tackle severe prison overcrowding. Official data reveals that by the end of June this year, nearly 40,000 criminals in England and Wales had been freed under this programme.
As of 1 December this year, the prison population stood at 87,603. This is 1,458 below the record high of 88,521 recorded on 6 September 2024.
Future Reforms and Legislative Plans
The MoJ confirmed that the potential impact of the Sentencing Bill, currently progressing through Parliament, is not included in these projections as it is not yet law. This proposed legislation aims to provide a long-term solution to the prison capacity crisis.
Key elements of the bill include a new earned release scheme, inspired by systems in Texas, where inmates demonstrating good behaviour could qualify for earlier release, while those who break rules would serve longer sentences.
Alongside these reforms, ministers have pledged to create 14,000 new prison places by 2031. The projections also follow recent announcements by the Justice Secretary to overhaul the courts system, though these future policy changes were also excluded from the current modelling.
