An explosive internal government assessment has laid bare a staggering public safety crisis, revealing that more than 33,000 criminals across England and Wales are currently deemed a serious risk to women and girls.
The damning figures, uncovered by the Guardian, expose the immense pressure on a probation service described as 'broken' and struggling under the weight of managing dangerous individuals, including violent and sexual predators.
A System Under Strain
The Ministry of Justice's own risk evaluation categorises these tens of thousands of offenders as posing a 'serious' or 'very serious' risk of causing harm to the public. This classification is the highest possible and indicates a potential for life-changing damage, including sexual violence or murder.
This crisis is compounded by a probation system in disarray. A recent inspection found that a shocking 39% of these high-risk cases are not being managed to the required standard, leaving potentially lethal individuals under-supervised in our communities.
Lives Already Lost
The human cost of this systemic failure is devastatingly clear. The inquest into the murder of Zara Aleena, a 35-year-old law graduate brutally killed in London in 2022, concluded that probation failures 'contributed' to her death. Her killer, Jordan McSweeney, was under probation supervision but was wrongly assessed as medium risk.
Similarly, the murders of Terri Harris, her children John and Lacey, and friend Connie Gent by Damien Bendall in 2021 occurred after he was also incorrectly classified as medium risk despite a history of extreme violence.
Call for Urgent Reform
Shadow justice secretary Shabana Mahmood stated these figures are 'a damning indictment of the Tory government’s failure to keep people safe.' She emphasised that 'probation is broken, and our communities are paying the price.'
In response to the scandal, the Ministry of Justice has announced a new 'Serious Risk Duty' to be piloted next year. This initiative aims to force police, probation, and other agencies to jointly identify and manage the most dangerous offenders, ensuring critical information is shared to prevent further tragedies.
However, with over 33,000 high-risk individuals already identified, the question remains: can a strained system be fixed fast enough to prevent the next preventable death?
