Humanity must scale up novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies even faster than the rapid deployment of solar panels to limit global heating to 1.5C, according to a new report. The study, published on Tuesday, warns that these technologies must grow at 'highly ambitious rates' to bridge the gap between current government pledges and the targets set by the Paris climate agreement.
Current State of Carbon Removal
Currently, machines that suck carbon directly from the air and chemical processes like biochar production account for only 0.1% of the 2.2 billion tonnes of CO2 removed globally each year. The vast majority comes from land-based methods such as reforestation, which face space limitations. The report finds that while novel CDR has grown by 40% annually, it starts from such a small base that it needs to match or exceed the growth rates of solar panels and electric vehicles—the fastest-growing climate technologies. Alarmingly, only one-fifth of planned capacity has been delivered in recent years.
The Gap in Climate Pledges
William Lamb, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the report, stated: 'Countries have pledged around 2.7 billion tonnes of carbon removal by 2035 and about 3.6 billion by 2050, but climate pathways require much more, especially in the long term. This leaves a gap that grows significantly over time.' CDR is a crucial but small component of roadmaps to halt global warming, as it can offset hard-to-avoid emissions and help lower temperatures after an inevitable overshoot period.
Scientists compare carbon removal to cleaning a polluted beach: the cheapest solution is to avoid littering, but cleanup efforts are needed to remediate past damage. The report, now in its third edition, highlights several indicators of 'fragile' support. For instance, the US under Donald Trump has withdrawn from the Paris agreement and promoted fossil fuels, undermining credibility and pressuring other nations.
Corporate and Policy Challenges
Microsoft, identified as the buyer of 82% of novel CDR credits, reportedly paused its purchases in April. The researchers note that such adjustments by first-movers reveal vulnerability if actions do not spread widely. A Microsoft spokesperson said the programme has not ended, with Chief Sustainability Officer Melanie Nakagawa explaining: 'At times we may adjust the pace or volume of our carbon removal procurement as we continue to refine our approach toward sustainability goals. Any adjustments we make are part of our disciplined approach – not a change in ambition.'
Ana Hernández from the Foundation for Climate Research in Spain, not involved in the study, commented that these examples contribute to declining corporate ambitions and increasing fragility. 'To complete the picture, no G20 country has a legally binding removal target, and the NDCs submitted in 2025 did not increase ambition for carbon removal.'
Scientific Pathways and Impermanent Storage
Scientific pathways to stop global heating require sharp cuts in fossil fuel use, reversing nature destruction, and deploying technologies to remove residual CO2. However, many CDR methods do not store carbon permanently. Thomas Gasser from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, co-author of a recent study on impermanent methods, said: 'While we are indeed far behind in terms of CDR development, it remains the only option to revert climate change in the long run – although only if greenhouse gas emissions are also reduced to near-zero.' Extreme climate impacts are likely to worsen without large-scale carbon removal, even beyond this century.
