Middle East Conflict Could Increase Holiday Costs Worldwide, Experts Warn
Travel experts have issued a stark warning that the ongoing war in the Middle East could lead to higher holiday prices for travellers, even if they are not visiting the region directly. The Foreign Office is currently advising against all but essential travel to several countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, resulting in thousands of flight cancellations.
Rising Jet Fuel Prices and Shifting Demand
Independent travel expert Jane Hawkes explained to the Mirror that the conflict is likely to affect holiday prices across the board. "One of the biggest knock-on effects is fuel," she said. "When oil prices rise, airlines face higher operating costs, which in turn filters into the price of flights." According to BBC reports, the north-west European jet fuel price has surged to $1,500 per tonne, up from $830 per tonne before the air strikes on Iran.
Andrea Platania from Transfeero added that rerouting flights from the Middle East is also contributing to potential price hikes. "Longer routes burn more fuel, and jet fuel itself has climbed due to oil price volatility," she noted. "This means airlines are likely to pass at least some of those costs on to travellers via higher ticket prices."
Impact on Hotels, Car Hire, and Excursions
The ripple effects extend beyond flights. As passengers avoid regions due to safety concerns, demand is shifting towards destinations perceived as more stable. "That can push up prices for those 'safer' preferred hotspots as hotels and flights fill up more quickly," Hawkes warned. Platania further elaborated that hotels in safe destinations might see upward pressure on room rates and travel packages due to higher transportation costs and cautious booking behaviour.
On the ground, petrol and energy price volatility linked to geopolitical risks could affect car hire, tours, and excursions. The RAC reported this week that petrol has increased by 3p to 136p a litre since Saturday, while diesel is up by 5p to 147p a litre.
Staycations Also at Risk of Price Increases
Richard Young, CEO of holiday company selfcatering.co.uk, highlighted that staycations in the UK may also become more expensive as travellers become more risk-averse. "Global uncertainty and rising fuel prices can quickly influence how people plan their holidays," he said. "When overseas trips become more expensive and potentially dangerous, many start looking closer to home."
Young pointed to increased interest in self-catering breaks in areas like the Yorkshire Dales, Norfolk, Northumberland, Devon, the Cotswolds, the Lake District, and Scottish Highlands such as Braemar, Fort William, and Inverness. "We saw this during the pandemic, periods of airline disruption, and previous fuel price spikes," he added, emphasising that these destinations offer flexibility without the stress of international travel.
Ultimately, the extent of the knock-on effects on holiday costs depends on how long the Middle East conflict persists. Travellers are advised to monitor prices and consider alternative options as the situation evolves.
