Recent modelling of a hypothetical nuclear war scenario has identified the Canary Islands as one of the safest locations in Spain, according to a study examining potential fallout patterns. The analysis, which simulated a simultaneous multilateral nuclear exchange on 20 January 2017, considered current nuclear stockpiles and likely targets.
The study comes amid renewed nuclear tensions, with experts warning that the risk of nuclear conflict may be higher now than during the Cold War. Former US Pentagon chief William Perry has stated that nuclear destruction is a greater threat today than in the 1970s and 1980s, citing geopolitical volatility and the election of Donald Trump.
While global homicide rates have declined and wars have become less deadly, the nuclear landscape has shifted. North Korea conducted its fifth and largest nuclear test in September 2016, and tensions persist between NATO and Russia, as well as between India and Pakistan. The UN Security Council is set to implement sanctions that could have wide-reaching consequences.
The Canary Islands' relative safety in the modelled scenario is attributed to their distance from likely targets and prevailing wind patterns that would carry fallout away from the archipelago. However, the study emphasises that no location would be entirely safe in a full-scale nuclear war.
