Disney is losing an estimated £3.5 million per day due to the ongoing blackout of its channels, including ESPN and ABC, on Google's YouTube TV, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The financial toll amounts to roughly £24 million per week, hitting the media giant's revenue as the dispute with Google continues.
The blackout began on 30 October after Disney and Google failed to reach a new carriage agreement. Google claims Disney is demanding an unprecedented fee hike, while Disney accuses Google of refusing to pay fair rates. The standoff has caused YouTube TV subscribers to miss major sporting events, including two weeks of 'Monday Night Football' and college football games.
Morgan Stanley analysts Benjamin Swinburne and Thomas Yeh said in a research note that they expect the dispute to be resolved later this week. However, they warned that each week of the blackout reduces Disney's adjusted earnings per share by 2 cents. The analysts have incorporated a 14-day impact into their forecast for Disney's fiscal year-end 2025 quarter, estimating a £48 million revenue headwind.
YouTube TV is also feeling the pressure, with a survey suggesting 24% of subscribers have cancelled or plan to cancel due to the loss of Disney channels. YouTube has offered a £16 credit to mitigate cancellations but claims subscriber churn has been manageable. Disney's Hulu + Live TV and Fubo, which recently merged, have nearly 6 million subscribers in North America.
The dispute comes after the launch of ESPN Unlimited in August, a standalone streaming service. Morgan Stanley estimates ESPN Unlimited will attract around 3 million subscribers by 2026, generating £14-£16 net effective monthly revenue per user. The analysts noted the launch has performed well against modest expectations.
