Halloween candy prices are set to rise by 10.8% this year, with some chocolate treats seeing increases of at least 20%, according to new analysis from the Century Foundation and the Groundwork Collaborative. The price hikes are driven by a combination of US tariffs on cocoa imports and climate-related damage to crops in West Africa.
Chocolate candies are particularly affected due to a years-long cocoa shortage that has tripled prices. Cocoa peaked at over $12,000 per ton in 2024, down to about $6,000 now but still far above the $2,300 per ton seen in 2020. Climate-related rain and crop damage in West Africa, the largest cocoa-exporting region, are blamed for the surge.
US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on major cocoa exporters have compounded the problem. The Ivory Coast, the largest cocoa producer, faces a 21% tariff, while Ecuador, the second-largest, faces 15%. Hershey's, the largest US chocolate manufacturer, said tariffs could cost the company over $100 million and has asked the Trump administration for a tariff exemption on cocoa.
Because cocoa can only be grown in tropical climates, US production is limited to tiny amounts in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Even domestically manufactured chocolate, like Hershey's, relies on imported cocoa. The National Retail Federation found that 79% of shoppers expect higher Halloween prices this year.
Economists note that strong demand for chocolate gives producers power to pass on costs. Some are resorting to 'shrinkflation' by reformulating products with less cocoa and more substitutes like almonds or milk. White chocolate, which contains no cocoa, may also become more common.
