Food prices in the UK are on track to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The thinktank found that climate and energy shocks have nearly quadrupled the pace of food price growth, with costs rising in five years at about the same rate as over the previous two decades.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation charity, warned that such rapid price increases leave low-income families with no choice but to cut back on food, leading to skipped meals, child hunger, and a rise in diet-related illness. This, she said, puts pressure on the NHS and takes parents out of work.
The ECIU report highlighted that foods including pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, and eggs are now at least 50% more expensive than five years ago. Beef prices have risen by 64%, while olive oil has more than doubled. These increases reflect sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves in the UK and key import regions.
Household food bills rose by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, the report added. Recently, five climate-affected foods—butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee—have driven much of the continued pressure on food inflation. The thinktank warned that inflation could become more extreme in the near future, with the war in the Middle East expected to spike oil and gas prices, and scientists predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record.
Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, noted that three of England’s worst harvests on record have occurred in the past five years. Adjusting for average wages, food prices have risen by 11% since the start of the cost of living crisis, compounding wage-adjusted rises in other household costs like energy and water bills.
