Several newly created accounts on the Polymarket platform have placed bets totalling nearly $70,000 on a US-Iran ceasefire before 31 March, prompting experts to flag potential insider trading. The accounts, all created around 21 March, stand to make nearly $820,000 if the ceasefire occurs.
Ben Yorke, a former CoinTelegraph researcher now building an AI trading platform, said the wallets 'definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info'. The bets were placed at market price, and some accounts appeared to split bets across multiple wallets, a tactic often used to conceal identity.
This follows a similar pattern in February when an account created shortly before US strikes on Iran placed a winning bet on those strikes. Polymarket accounts are anonymous, making it difficult to trace owners.
Polymarket's probability of a ceasefire before 31 March rose from 6% on 21 March to 24% by Monday, with over $21m wagered. The platform has faced criticism over potential war profiteering and insider trading, and its investors include a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr.
Insider knowledge may not guarantee success, as the bet requires both the US and Iran to publicly confirm a ceasefire. The rules state: 'For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.'
