Sixteen bets of $100,000 each accurately predicted the timing of US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user made over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power, moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, traders bet $950 million that oil prices would fall just hours before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran.
These well-timed wagers have raised concerns among lawmakers and experts about potential insider trading. Betting has expanded from sports to news events, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing bets on virtually any development. Commodity derivatives such as oil futures also enable traders to gamble on price movements.
US federal agencies and some members of Congress have called for a crackdown on suspicious trading across different marketplaces. However, Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University, questioned enforcement capabilities given technological limitations.
On the night of 27 February, about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets totaling $855,000 that the US would strike Iran the next day. A New York Times analysis found 16 accounts pocketed more than $100,000 each. A complaint to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by Public Citizen cited a single anonymous user, “Magamyman”, who made over $553,000 betting on Khamenei’s removal just before his death. A crypto-analytics firm identified six “suspected insiders” who made $1.2 million on Polymarket after the assassination.
Similar surges occurred on 7 April, when at least 50 Polymarket accounts bet on a US-Iran ceasefire hours before Trump’s announcement. In oil futures, traders placed $580 million in bets on 23 March, 15 minutes before Trump said talks with Iran were “productive”, and $950 million on 7 April before the ceasefire. Andrew Verstein, a law professor at UCLA, said many trades bear hallmarks of suspicious activity warranting investigation.
Craig Holman of Public Citizen, who filed the CFTC complaint, said the timing and size of bets make it likely that someone had insider knowledge. He expressed scepticism about how boldly the CFTC will investigate.
