UK households are bracing for a significant increase in energy bills, with the price cap set to rise by £221 to £1,862 from July. This marks the largest increase since 2023, driven by global energy market turmoil following US and Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February.
The conflict has disrupted oil and gas supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices to $126 per barrel before settling near $93, up from pre-war levels of $65-70. Motorists are also feeling the pinch, with petrol prices rising 26.6p per litre since the war began, adding £14.63 to the cost of filling a typical family car.
Experts warn that the cost of living crisis could worsen, with further energy price rises expected in October as winter demand increases. Cornwall Insight forecasts the October cap will remain similar to July's level, even if the conflict ends soon, due to infrastructure damage and supply disruptions.
Commentators have coined the term 'Trumpflation' to describe the inflationary impact of the war on Britain. TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said: 'Painful energy price rises are coming down the track – and working people are already feeling the pinch with fuel costs rising because of Trumpflation.'
Heating oil prices, which surged 120% in early March, have since fallen to 90p per litre but remain 50% higher than before the conflict. The Food and Drink Federation has warned that grocery costs could rise by 10% across 2026 due to increased production costs.
