Asia Intensifies Coal Dependence to Counter Energy Deficit from Iran Conflict
In response to a severe energy crisis precipitated by the US-Israel war on Iran, nations across Asia are escalating their utilisation of coal, the most environmentally damaging fossil fuel. This shift aims to mitigate substantial energy shortfalls, but it has sparked alarms from climate specialists who advocate for renewable investments as a more secure alternative.
Regional Responses to Energy Shortages
From Bangladesh to South Korea, governments are compensating for declines in imported energy, predominantly sourced from the Middle East. South Korea has postponed the closure of coal-fired power plants and removed limits on coal-based electricity. In Thailand, authorities have amplified production at the nation's largest coal facility. The Philippines, having declared a national energy emergency due to the conflict, intends to enhance operations at its coal-burning plants.
In South Asia, India, where coal accounts for nearly 75% of power generation, has directed coal plants to operate at full capacity and avoid scheduled outages. Bangladesh escalated coal-fired power generation and imports in March to address the crisis.
Liquefied Natural Gas Supply Disruptions
The energy deficit is partly driven by interruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, often promoted as a transitional fuel from coal to cleaner energy. Research indicates that exported LNG can emit more greenhouse gases than coal. Many Asian countries depend on LNG for electricity and industries like fertiliser manufacturing, with demand projected to double over the next 25 years.
However, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of global LNG shipments, has severed supplies. Attacks on a major LNG export facility in Qatar are expected to worsen shortages and have long-term impacts on the industry. Henning Gloystein, managing director of energy and resources at Eurasia Group, noted that nearly 30 billion cubic meters of LNG has vanished from global supply chains, with over 80% missing in the Indo-Pacific region.
Gloystein stated, "The global market has flipped within four weeks from quite a healthy supply surplus into a very severe deficit – and that's going to not just lead to price spikes, but real fuel shortages." He added that countries with coal reserves will utilise them as the quickest, cheapest replacement for LNG, though nations like India are also accelerating renewable energy projects.
Climate Experts Urge Renewable Shift
Climate and energy experts warn that the crisis should serve as a pivotal moment for governments. Pauline Heinrichs from King's College London emphasised, "The impact of coal on climate and health outcomes is devastating and disastrous. Not only does it worsen climate risks, but the same goes for pollution and toxicity." She highlighted that renewable energy is crucial not only for climate goals but also for broader energy security in Asia, as economies with substantial renewable capacity are less vulnerable.
Heinrichs cautioned against entrenching coal reliance long-term, saying, "We need to learn that this is the moment to break that cycle of responding to short-term fossil fuel induced shocks with investments in fossil fuels, because they're never short-term – they're always long-term infrastructure investments of sorts." Dinita Setyawati, a senior energy analyst at Ember in Jakarta, echoed this, stating, "It's not sustainable to rely on coal. Homegrown renewables are definitely the way to go to improve more energy security and resilience."
Energy Conservation Measures Across Asia
To reduce consumption, Asian countries are implementing various strategies. The Philippines and Sri Lanka have introduced four-day workweeks for many government employees, while Vietnam encourages remote work. Bangladesh closed universities early for Eid al-Fitr holidays and increased planned blackouts, and Pakistan has shifted schools to online teaching.
Gloystein concluded that LNG supply recovery will take years, noting, "This isn't a short-term thing – people hope that next week there will be some form of a climb down or ceasefire and then we'll go back to normal. This is going to stay with us for a while because the damage that has been done, it's going to take years to repair."
