The UK economy is expected to have recorded another quarter of growth, with some economists predicting GDP increased by 0.4% in the second quarter (April to June). This follows a 0.6% rise in the first three months of 2026.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics, due to be published on Thursday, are set to show resilience despite supply chain issues and price pressures linked to the Iran war, as well as political uncertainty.
Services sector strengthens
The services sector, the most dominant in the UK economy, strengthened in May, largely driven by professional services and scientific research and development. Recent data also suggests factories and manufacturers have been stockpiling in anticipation of supply shortages and price rises, helping to keep growth elevated.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures would show "the big picture is that the economy has remained resilient to the hit from the war in Iran".
June may bring mixed results
However, economists expect a weaker picture may emerge from June, as heatwaves bring mixed results for businesses and some industries face increasing pressure. Mr Wood expects monthly GDP to dip by 0.1% in June, "reversing the 0.1% gain in May, as a sharp fall in construction activity drags on growth, while services and industrial production stagnate".
Thomas Pugh, chief economist for RSM UK, forecasts a slight rise of 0.1% in June, helped by a big jump in erratic mining activity. He said services may be dragged down by a fall in hospitality activity, despite the Fifa World Cup kicking off in June.
Mr Pugh noted that business surveys suggest "consumers were likely switching away from restaurants towards pubs to watch the World Cup, rather than increasing the total amount of spending". But he added: "There could still be a boost to activity in July, given the scorching weather and England reaching the semi-finals."
Boost for new PM
A quarterly increase in GDP would be good news for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has said he wants to achieve "growth in every postcode" of the UK. He opened a new headquarters for the centre of Government in Manchester in late July, named No 10 North, where he is expected to work once each week as part of his move to push power out of Westminster.
