President Donald Trump has promised Americans a $2,000 check from revenue generated by his tariffs, but economists and budget experts say the numbers do not add up. In a Truth Social post, Trump said a dividend of at least $2,000 per person would be paid, excluding high-income individuals, without elaborating on income limits or eligibility.
Erika York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, said: “The numbers just don’t check out.” Tariffs have raised $195 billion, up 153 percent from $77 billion in 2024, according to the Associated Press, but the federal deficit stands at $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year.
John Ricco, an analyst at Yale University’s Budget Lab, estimated tariff revenue at $200–300 billion annually. However, payments to all Americans, including children, would cost $600 billion. Even if restricted to adults, the 258.3 million people over 18 would require more than $516 billion. Ricco added that congressional approval would be needed.
Economists note that US importers typically pass tariff costs onto consumers through higher prices. York said the plan “misses the mark”, adding: “If the goal is relief for Americans, just get rid of the tariffs.” The Supreme Court has heard arguments challenging the tariffs, with three lower courts having ruled their imposition illegal.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the dividend could take forms such as tax cuts, including no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security, and deductibility of auto loans. During Trump’s first term, stimulus checks were issued with income limits of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples; it remains unclear whether the latest proposal would follow suit.
