A new report shared exclusively with the Guardian projects that elderly Americans will lose an average of $2,152 in annual Social Security benefits each—an 8.6% reduction in retirement payments—by 2034 and every year after, as a direct consequence of the economic fallout from the Trump administration's anti-immigration campaign, if it continues.
The report, titled Economic Impacts of Trump Administration Immigration Policy, was commissioned by America's Voice and conducted by researchers at Economic Insights and Research Consulting. It finds that US food prices are already up, housing permits for new homes are down, and even native-born Americans are losing out on potential jobs after the sudden exodus of 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the last two years due to Donald Trump's policies.
Data contradicts administration claims
Michael Ettlinger, one of the report's authors, said: "When the Trump administration says things, it's not always data-driven. And we wanted to see what the data shows, and what other people have found the data shows. Turns out that refutes what the US president primarily is asserting."
Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America's Voice, told the Guardian: "We are just beginning to see the harms in terms of what is happening here domestically. But the impacts of these policies, of these efforts, are going to be long-lasting. And I think that is by design."
Agricultural and construction sectors hit hard
In the agricultural sector, where 42% of crop workers are undocumented and 68% are foreign-born, farmers report that the vast majority or in some cases all of their workforce has disappeared overnight, leaving produce to rot in the ground. Food products heavily reliant on immigrant labor have seen sharper price increases than food overall since Trump retook the White House. Examples include fresh whole milk up by 5.7%, canned vegetables up by 6.3%, and apples up by 7.2% over the last 19 months, compared with the 19 months before Trump returned to office in January 2025.
Robert Lynch, another report author, noted: "One thing that changed was the [immigration] policy. Before, the trend for all those goods was a lower inflation rate. And afterward, the trend was higher inflation. So the trend was reversed, and that was quite striking."
In construction, where foreign-born workers fill almost a third of occupations, states more dependent on immigrant labor have seen costs for new single-family homes soar 10.9% in 2026, compared with the first eight months of 2024, bringing the average project value from $305,752 to $338,752. Housing permit issuance for single-family homes has dropped 10.6% nationwide since January 2025, with higher declines in regions more reliant on foreign-born workers.
Job losses and Social Security impact
Native-born Americans are missing out on potential income in states like California, Nevada, New Jersey, Florida, and New York, where construction employment is declining—because when there are no immigrant roofers, American electricians and plumbers lose those projects. Ettlinger said: "It's not like someone can go work in construction and just not have any skills. And we're losing people who have been here for decades working in construction. That could be fixed, but it's going to take time."
Other industries with soaring costs and labor shortages include healthcare, home health care, nursing homes, adult daycare, lawn care, landscaping, and groundskeeping. By September 2025, native-born workers had already lost an estimated 51,000 to 297,000 jobs due to changes in US immigration policy. The labor force shrank by an estimated 919,000 people during the 18 months of Trump's second term, while job growth slowed to roughly a third of the rate before he retook office.
The federal government risks losing a large segment of the $26bn in payroll taxes from unauthorized immigrants that support the Social Security fund. Social security trustees—including treasury secretary Scott Bessent, health and human services secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, labor secretary Keith Sonderling, and social security commissioner Frank Bisignano—are warning that lower net immigration than expected threatens worse finances for the retirement benefits system.
The report's authors write: "The share of that annual loss due to the Trump immigration policy would be $2,152 [per person on average]. Thus, the Trump immigration policies, if continued, would reduce projected average annual Social Security benefits by 8.6% in 2034, and every year thereafter."
Lynch added: "We would expect higher prices. We would expect more job losses, slower economic growth and the affordability crisis getting worse – partly because prices are higher, partly because people are losing their jobs and their incomes and they can't afford as much."
