May's record-breaking temperatures led to a 2.6 per cent drop in overall footfall year-on-year, according to data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Sensormatic. While the hot weather initially encouraged shoppers, the intense heatwave later kept many at home, dampening what was otherwise a positive month for high street retailers.
Shopping centres saw a 2.4 per cent decline in visits, while high street foot traffic fell by a more moderate 1.5 per cent. However, these figures represent a substantial improvement from April's 10.7 per cent year-on-year drop, suggesting a gradual recovery despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by the US-Iran war.
Consumer confidence rose in May, with the YouGov and Centre for Economics and Business Research index increasing by 2.6 points to 104.9—the biggest jump in five years. This follows a sharp drop to 102.4 in April, a low not seen since late 2023. The rise may indicate that consumers perceive the UK economy as less severely impacted than initially feared.
The OECD upgraded its UK growth forecast for 2024 to 0.9 per cent, up from 0.7 per cent in March. Inflation fell to 2.8 per cent in April, partly due to the government scrapping an energy efficiency scheme that reduced average energy bills by £120. However, economists warn this may be short-lived, as Ofgem's energy price cap is set to increase by £221 from July.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson noted that while warmer weather initially boosted footfall, the record-breaking temperatures later caused a sharp decline, particularly in shopping centres and retail parks. She added that households remain anxious about the long-term impact of the Iran conflict and inflation, urging the government to tackle inflationary pressures to rebuild consumer confidence and support footfall.
