China's population declined for the fourth straight year in 2025, with births dropping 17% to a record low of 7.92 million, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The total population fell by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than in 2024, while deaths rose to 11.31 million.
The birthrate of 5.63 per 1,000 people is the lowest since records began in 1949. Demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison noted that births in 2025 were roughly equivalent to levels in 1738, when China's population was about 150 million.
Despite government efforts, including a 90bn yuan (£9.65bn) childcare subsidy and expanded IVF coverage, young people cite high costs and economic uncertainty. The average cost of raising a child to age 18 is 538,000 yuan, over 6.3 times GDP per capita, according to a Chinese thinktank.
The death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 was the highest since 1968. Over-60s now account for 23% of the population, a figure projected to reach 400 million by 2035. China has raised retirement ages to 63 for men and 58 for women.
Marriages fell by a fifth in 2024, though a policy change allowing nationwide marriage registration led to a 22.5% rise in Q3 2025. Demographers expect a temporary birth increase but warn long-term trends remain challenging due to ageing and urbanisation.
