Investment experts have said gold, currently valued at just over $4,100 an ounce, could represent a buying opportunity after it smashed through $5,000 for the first time in January before peaking at almost $5,600. However, they caution that, despite ongoing "de-dollarisation" and gold's role as a hedge to fiat currencies, investors should not expect a return to record highs in the short term and that its role should ultimately be that of a portfolio "diversifier."
Short-Term Headwinds Persist
Tony Redondo, founder of Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said: "The long-term bull case for gold remains intact, despite the aggressive 27% retracement from January's high of $5,595 an ounce. However, people need to be aware that short-term headwinds persist. The primary pressure stems from a hawkish Federal Reserve under US Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, where a 'higher-for-longer' stance and sticky 4.2% inflation have boosted real yields and the dollar."
Redondo added: "At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy costs up, paradoxically weighing on gold by reinforcing the Fed's tight policy. But emerging market central banks continue their structural shift toward de-dollarisation, buying a net 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 alone, while soaring sovereign debt levels underpin gold's role as a fiat hedge."
Major Institutions Forecast Recovery
Redondo noted: "Major institutions are forecasting a recovery in the yellow metal, with UBS targeting $5,500 and Goldman Sachs $4,900 by the end of the year. January's highs should return, but tactical buyers must brace for choppy consolidation before the macro tailwinds take hold."
Paul Denley, CEO of London-based Oakham Wealth Management, said: "The fall in the price of gold naturally makes it look more attractive, but investors shouldn't anchor to January's high and assume a return to that level is inevitable. Gold is an unusual asset: it produces no income and has no earnings against which to judge its valuation, so there's no reliable anchor telling us whether $4,000 is cheap or whether the rise to almost $5,600 was an overshoot."
Gold as Portfolio Diversifier
Denley continued: "The recent weakness is telling. Gold has fallen even as geopolitical tensions have remained high, likely because higher bond yields and a firm dollar have raised the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. Gold's strongest role in a portfolio is as a diversifier: insurance you own before you need it, not a trade you should chase. At current levels, I'd favour buying gradually rather than trying to call the bottom, and owning gold for the protection it can provide, not simply because it used to be more expensive."
Anita Wright, chartered financial planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said: "January's $5,600 was not gold going supersonic. It was the dollar going soft. The fall back to $4,000 is not gold weakening. It is a brief rally in a currency that has lost most of its purchasing power since 1971 and will lose the rest. When interest rates go up, the deficit goes up, because interest is the fastest-growing line in the budget. That is fiscal dominance, and it is why monetary tightening no longer does what the textbook says it should. Gold responds to that. It has been rising against every major currency."
Structural Bull Market and Buying Opportunity
Wright added: "Central banks have been buying it steadily, because it is the one large reserve asset that is nobody else's liability. None of which means January's high returns next month. Gold ran a long way, fast. Drawdowns of 20% or more are ordinary inside a structural bull market and tell you nothing about the trend. Deficits are structural, not cyclical. If you are allocating for the next decade rather than the next quarter, dips are a buying opportunity."
