The Met Office has warned that autumn this year is likely to be wetter than normal, resulting in an increased risk of flooding, as El Nino conditions are already nearing record levels. The chances of a warm and wet autumn for the UK are around one-and-a-half to two times more likely than what would normally be expected, with an increased likelihood of windy conditions later in the season.
El Nino's global impact
The prediction comes as supercharged El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which have a knock-on effect on weather across the globe, will put the UK at greater risk of a wet and stormy autumn, forecasters say. Predictions have indicated that one of the strongest El Nino events on record could develop, with the current El Nino already near record levels.
El Nino happens when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average, which in turn can affect weather patterns across Europe. Historically, El Nino events tend to be associated with warmer, wetter and stormier weather across the UK and northern Europe during late autumn going into early winter, which is broadly consistent with the latest seasonal outlook, the Met Office said.
Forecasters urge caution
However, El Nino is one of several climate drivers that can influence the UK's weather and so does not determine exactly what conditions the UK is likely to experience, the forecaster said. The forecaster added that an increased likelihood of wetter and windier than normal conditions does come with an increased risk of impacts such as flooding.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Ian Lisk, said: "The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Nino events."
"However, El Nino is only one of several factors affecting the UK's weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK."
Drought continues
Lisk added: "We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves."
It comes as officials said almost three quarters of England remain in drought despite recent rain, as the country continues to battle its third drought in five years. While rain has turned the grass green again, and it would be "understandable" to think the drought was over, the Environment Agency said there was still a very long way to go, with concerns over a number of reservoirs at very low levels.
