The Met Office has shared its verdict on the possibility of a "colder" winter. Autumn is officially underway but temperatures have remained mild throughout this week. As September closes and October begins next week, the forecaster has released its long-term outlook.
Forecast confidence decreases
The forecaster said it's a myth to look for patterns in the weather forecast, and it's hard to determine what the winter will look like this far in advance. It said: "At this stage, it is simply too early to determine exactly what winter 2026-27 will bring. Forecast confidence naturally decreases the further ahead we look, and the key drivers of winter weather are still evolving."
El Nino effects on UK weather
The Met Office also shared an update about the effects of El Nino, which increases the chances of "wetter and stormier" weather. An El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. El Niño is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer than average weather.
Discussing what it means for weather in the UK, the Met Office said: "The current El Niño is unprecedented in terms of its strength at present and various seasonal modelling centres predict further strengthening over the next couple of months, with a predicted peak in November of December. For the UK, El Niño increases the chances of a wetter and stormier late autumn and early winter period, which would also likely be milder than normal."
Autumn conditions continue
Autumn can bring about some unsettled weather conditions, with a mixture of drizzly afternoons with the odd sunny spell. This September is proving to do exactly that, with many people left wondering whether they'll need their sunglasses or an umbrella as they set out for the day.
