The Met Office has predicted that heavy rain and 'intense downpours' could sweep across the UK next week. The forecast comes as the fifth heatwave of the summer brings temperatures of up to 36C with barely a cloud in the sky.
Rain expected late Monday into Tuesday
According to the Met Office, 'current indications' suggest rain could sweep 'south-eastwards across the country' sometime between late Monday and Tuesday. The statement reads: "Current indications suggest rain could sweep south-eastwards across the country sometime between late Monday and Tuesday. Some heavier bursts are possible, with the potential for locally intense downpours along the leading weather front."
Despite some showers on Friday and Saturday, the truly heavy rain is not likely to come until next week, if it arrives at all.
Low confidence in rainfall forecast
The Met Office has warned that this is not yet a given, as forecasting rainfall this exceptionally dry summer has been difficult, leading to several false dawns. It adds: "However, recent weeks have shown how difficult it can be to forecast rainfall far in advance. Several forecast systems have previously suggested wetter weather only for the rain to weaken or fail to materialise as expected. For that reason, confidence remains lower than for the temperature forecast."
Rain unlikely to solve drought
Even if rain does arrive, it is not expected to solve the ongoing drought. The Met Office states: "Even if the rain does arrive as currently expected, it is unlikely to provide a complete solution to drought concerns. Much of the rainfall is expected to move through relatively quickly, and some of it may simply run off very dry ground rather than being fully absorbed. What many areas need is prolonged, persistent rainfall rather than short-lived showers or brief frontal systems."
Fortunately, the longer-term forecast also looks more unsettled, which could bring further showers. The Met Office adds: "As we move further into next week, uncertainty increases. Some forecast scenarios suggest high pressure could rebuild from the southwest, bringing further settled weather. Others indicate a more changeable pattern with low pressure systems bringing spells of rain, particularly to northwestern parts of the UK. The key difference compared with much of the summer is that weather patterns are becoming less settled and more variable. Rather than the persistent dominance of high pressure seen in recent months, there is now a broader range of possible outcomes."
