UK households are being urged to prepare for a severe cold snap as experts warn that an unprecedented El Niño event could weaken the polar vortex, bringing heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures to Britain in the coming weeks.
El Niño and the polar vortex
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. A research paper published by the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory concluded that El Niño "tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter."
The polar vortex is a band of strong westerly winds that circles the North Pole and traps bitterly cold air near the Arctic. Its breakdown is expected to send very cold winds and freezing temperatures towards the UK.
Advice for households
British Gas has recommended that households gather essential supplies, including at least three days' worth of food and essentials stored in an easy-to-reach part of the home. The emergency kit should include medicines, drinking water, non-perishable food and snacks, and extra blankets.
Additional advice includes improving home insulation, protecting pipes against freezing, and checking a car's brakes, heater, tyres and windscreen wipers to ensure they are in good working order. British Gas added: "if you can keep your fuel tank half full during snowy conditions, all the better."
It also advises checking in on elderly or vulnerable relatives and neighbours to make sure they have everything they need to get through a cold snap.
Met Office forecast
The Met Office said: "The current El Niño is unprecedented in terms of its strength at present and various seasonal modelling centres predict further strengthening over the next couple of months, with a predicted peak in November of December.
"For the UK, El Niño increases the chances of a wetter and stormier late autumn and early winter period, which would also likely be milder than normal.
"Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather. However, significant as El Niño is, it is important to emphasise that it alone does not determine precise weather patterns and other outcomes remain possible."
