Weather experts have warned that a major disruption to the polar vortex could be just days away, raising the possibility of colder weather and snow across parts of Europe this winter. New forecasts suggest the polar vortex, which helps keep freezing Arctic air trapped around the North Pole, is weakening much earlier than usual.
Forecast Reversal and Sudden Stratospheric Warming
According to Severe Weather Europe, winds high above the Arctic are expected to reverse direction as early as Friday, November 6. The change could trigger what is known as a sudden stratospheric warming event, which can affect weather patterns across Europe, the United States and Canada. If the disruption develops as forecast, it could be the earliest event of its kind on record, around three weeks earlier than previously observed.
The latest forecast models show temperatures in the stratosphere could rise more than 27C above normal for this time of year. This does not mean temperatures at ground level will rise by the same amount.
Potential Colder Conditions and Snowfall
Instead, the warming can weaken the winds surrounding the Arctic, potentially allowing colder air to spread further south in the weeks that follow. Severe Weather Europe examined previous climate simulations involving similar early disruptions and found signs of colder conditions across Europe during December. The data also showed the potential for above-average snowfall across large parts of the continent.
However, the researchers stressed that these results are not a forecast of what will happen this winter. The latest outlook for late November shows some colder conditions developing towards eastern Europe, while western areas could remain warmer than average.
El Niño and Longer-Term Outlook
There is also another factor affecting this winter's weather. A strong El Niño event in the Pacific is expected to influence global weather patterns and could reduce or change the impact of the polar vortex disruption.
Looking further ahead to January, the simulations suggest western and northern parts of Europe could experience colder conditions, with an increased snowfall signal in some areas. But there is no guarantee that Britain will see an Arctic blast or widespread snow.
For now, forecasters are watching whether the expected change in the polar vortex develops and how it could affect weather closer to the ground over the coming weeks.
