The Met Office has announced plans to extend its weather forecasts from seven to fourteen days, introducing a new probabilistic approach for longer-range predictions. The service, which currently provides hourly breakdowns for the first five days and three-hourly for the remaining two, will soon include forecasts for rainfall, wind speed, and temperatures into a second week.
According to a Met Office statement, recent research highlights that probability-based forecasts can be beneficial, particularly at extended ranges, and can better inform public decision-making. The Met Office is exploring how to implement this approach via its website and app in the coming months, building on existing communication methods such as YouTube videos and 10-day trends.
While many weather apps already offer two-week forecasts, the Met Office had previously refrained due to accuracy challenges. However, new research by Met Office science fellow Ken Mylne suggests that probabilistic forecasts are understandable and useful for decision-making, contrary to earlier assumptions that uncertainty might undermine confidence.
The announcement follows the BBC's decision to reunite with the Met Office for weather forecasts last October, ending an eight-year separation. Advances in artificial intelligence, including models from Nvidia and Google DeepMind, are also contributing to faster and more accurate forecasting capabilities.
