Google has warned that banks, governments, and technology providers need to prepare for quantum computer hackers capable of breaking most existing encryption systems by 2029. The tech company said in a blogpost that quantum computers would pose a 'significant threat to current cryptographic standards' before the end of the decade and urged other firms to follow its lead.
The company, owned by Alphabet, stated: 'The encryption currently used to keep your information confidential and secure could easily be broken by a large-scale quantum computer in coming years.' As it stands, quantum computers are a nascent technology with great potential but significant obstacles to widespread usability.
Google, Microsoft, and universities across the UK and US are building systems that harness quantum mechanics to perform sophisticated mathematical calculations. Most systems are prohibitively difficult to build, requiring massive amounts of helium to cool to near-absolute zero or weeks of work aligning lasers. Those working today are too small for the tasks that excite the scientific community.
Google said it had 'adjusted our threat model to prioritise post-quantum cryptography migration for authentication services' and recommended that other engineering teams follow suit. Leonie Mueck, formerly chief product officer of Cambridge-based quantum startup Riverlane, noted that Google's statement did not necessarily mean a working quantum computer capable of breaking encryption would exist by 2029.
Mueck said most timelines for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer range from the 2030s to the 2050s, but the prospect was close enough that governments were already preparing for data stored to today's standards to be exposed when technology advances. Last year, the UK's National Cyber Security Centre urged organisations to guard against quantum hackers by 2035.
Google's timeline suggests engineering teams should consider protecting sensitive data by migrating to advanced encryption systems now. 'Store now, decrypt later' attacks may currently be deployed. Mueck said: 'You need to have classified documents that are classified today in a way that a quantum computer in 10 years won’t be able to decrypt them.'
