Newcastle United were thrashed 4-1 by newly promoted Coventry City on Monday evening, but the tone was set around an hour before kick-off by Sky Sports presenter Dave Jones.
Jones, alongside studio pundits Jamie Carragher and Steve Cooper, examined the expected goal difference stats from the opening five games of the season, with both Coventry and Newcastle second bottom on -0.75.
'Relegation form' warning
Those underlying stats are worrying, and it was jarring to hear Jones describe it as 'relegation form' on a night where a win would have lifted Matthias Jaissle's side into the top four of the Premier League table.
"If this is at -0.8 across a season then the data tells us you are going to get relegated," Jones said. "That is what has traditionally happened across Premier League seasons so these two [teams] are the bottom two in terms of xG."
Start deemed a success
Newcastle's start to the season - eight points from five games - had been deemed a success, and at surface level it is hard to disagree. Jaissle came in with very little time to stamp his authority on the side and inherited a team who sold some of their best players and replaced them with eight players aged 24 and under.
To lose just one of those opening five games felt like a decent return, and Monday's trip to Coventry felt like a real chance to build a foundation for success.
But if you scratch beneath the surface, those underlying stats tell a worrying story. If you don't take your chances and concede far too many of your own, while lacking any discernible control in midfield, that is not a sustainable route to success.
Chances missed and mistakes punished
Newcastle had 19 shots on goal to Coventry's nine and had 67 per cent of possession. But they missed chance after chance, with Matias Fernandez-Pardo spurning two huge opportunities which personified their lack of ruthlessness in front of goal.
At the other end, they made so many mistakes and Coventry punished them. Lukas Hornicek spilled an easy collection before giving away a penalty in his desperate attempts to retrieve the ball at the second attempt.
Joelinton lost the ball on the edge of his own box to hand Ellis Simms a chance to score from the bench. Sven Botman was incredibly lucky that his slack clearance with zero pressure on him did not end up with Sidiki Cherif scoring his second goal of the evening.
Alarm bells ringing
If the manner in which they were picked apart by a relegation contender doesn't set alarm bells off inside St James' Park, it is hard to see what will. Coventry had scored one goal in the Premier League before tonight. Newcastle were wasteful in front of goal and pitiful defending their own - they have now conceded 10 goals against Leeds, Coventry and Bournemouth. It is unorganised chaos and it is unsustainable.
Six games is too early to be realistically associating this Newcastle team with a relegation battle, but the thought is out there now and it is up to Jaissle's side to prove it is nonsense. To do so, so much has to improve and quickly.
