Victories for Tottenham, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest over the weekend have placed a major club under unexpected relegation threat. A football data expert has simulated all remaining Premier League fixtures and outlined how Newcastle United could surprisingly be relegated alongside Burnley and Wolves.
Relegation Battle Overview
While many fans view the relegation scrap as a direct contest between Spurs and West Ham, multiple scenarios exist where both survive. Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Leeds, and Nottingham Forest are not yet mathematically safe.
TikTok account aaronw_data has revealed how Eddie Howe's side could drop on 43 points, albeit under unlikely circumstances. Newcastle, on a four-match losing streak, would need to lose to both Forest and West Ham, earning just one point from matches against Brighton or Fulham.
Meanwhile, Brighton would require three wins from four games, defeating Leeds and two of Aston Villa, Chelsea, or Everton.
Specific Requirements for Relegation
Forest must beat Newcastle and gain three more points from games against Chelsea, Manchester United, or Bournemouth. West Ham's role involves defeating Newcastle at St James' Park, drawing with Leeds, and picking up four points against Brentford and Arsenal.
Leeds would need to beat Burnley or Brighton, lose to Tottenham, and draw with West Ham to ensure safety and relegate Newcastle.
Under this scenario, Newcastle finish 18th on 43 points based on goal difference, assuming Spurs overturn a six-goal deficit. Spurs would be 17th, West Ham 16th, Leeds 15th, and Forest 14th.
Probability Assessment
Running 2,650 simulations, the expert found Newcastle relegated only once, calling it an outside chance. OPTA's supercomputer gives Newcastle a 0.7% relegation probability, Leeds ~1%, Forest ~2%, West Ham 37.94%, and Tottenham 58.99%.
