Liverpool are set to confront Qarabag in their final league phase encounter of the Champions League this season, with the match scheduled for 14:04 on 28 January 2026. This pivotal fixture holds significant implications for both teams as they vie for advancement in Europe's premier club competition.
High Stakes for Liverpool's Champions League Ambitions
Entering the last matchday in fourth position, Liverpool must secure a victory to guarantee an automatic berth in the round of 16. A win would enable the Reds to bypass the two-legged play-off stage, allowing them to concentrate their efforts on domestic campaigns in the Premier League and FA Cup. This adds immense pressure to deliver a strong performance at Anfield.
Contrasting Form and Home Dominance
Under the guidance of manager Arne Slot, Liverpool have exhibited a stark contrast in form between domestic and European competitions. While struggling in the Premier League, where they currently sit sixth following a 3-2 defeat to Bournemouth, their Champions League record remains formidable. The team has clinched five wins from seven games in Europe, showcasing their prowess on the continental stage.
Notably, Liverpool have been particularly dominant at Anfield, triumphing in 17 of their last 20 home fixtures during the group and league phases of the competition. This home advantage could prove crucial as they seek to overcome their injury challenges.
Historical Context and Qarabag's Record
This match marks the first-ever competitive meeting between Liverpool and an Azerbaijani club in European competition, adding a layer of novelty to the encounter. However, Qarabag bring a difficult history against English teams, having remained winless in their eight previous encounters with Premier League opposition. This statistic underscores the uphill battle they face at Anfield.
Team News and Injury Crisis for Liverpool
Arne Slot is grappling with a severe defensive crisis that could significantly impact Liverpool's lineup. Virgil van Dijk stands as the only fully fit senior centre-back available, with key defenders sidelined due to various issues.
- Ibrahima Konate is absent on compassionate leave.
- Joe Gomez is out with a hip injury.
- Giovanni Leoni is recovering from an ACL injury.
This shortage likely forces midfielder Wataru Endo to deputise in defence, a tactical adjustment that may expose vulnerabilities at the back.
Additional Absences and Doubts
Liverpool will also be without long-term absentees Alexander Isak and Conor Bradley, further depleting their squad depth. Federico Chiesa remains a doubt for the match despite returning to training, adding uncertainty to the attacking options.
For Qarabag, players Kevin Medina and Matheus Silva are both available but must exercise caution, as they are one booking away from suspension. This could influence their playing style and aggression on the pitch.
Predictions and Statistical Analysis
Statistical models and expert analysis heavily favour Liverpool for this clash, with win probabilities exceeding 80% despite their recent Premier League struggles. Opta-style predictions suggest a high-scoring affair, given that Qarabag have found the net in six of their seven Champions League games this season.
Final Score Forecasts and Key Threats
Most pundits are leaning towards a Liverpool victory, with common scorelines predicted as 2-1 or 3-1. Experts anticipate that Liverpool's makeshift defence may concede, but their attacking firepower should ultimately outscore Qarabag. Primary goal threats for Liverpool are expected to be Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitike, who have emerged as the team's most clinical finishers in European competitions this season.
As the match approaches, all eyes will be on how Liverpool navigate their injury woes and whether Qarabag can defy historical trends to secure a crucial result in their quest for knockout stage qualification.
